WNC Index ends 2009 on upswing

Western North Carolina's economy ended its roller coaster ride in 2009 with three consecutive months of growth, according to the Western North Carolina Economic Index.

The region's economic activity increased 1 percent in December 2009—the third consecutive monthly gain. The index, which tracks the level of economic activity in 25 Western North Carolina counties, increased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The national economy grew at a 5.7 percent rate during the same period.

"It appears we are turning a corner," said Todd Cherry, a co-author of the report and director of the Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis at Appalachian State University. "We haven't ended a year with three consecutive months of regional growth in about two years. There is a long way to go yet, but the first step is beginning to see consistency in positive news about regional activity."

The region's unemployment picture remains troublesome, Cherry said. "It will take some time before we see the gains in economic activity translating to new jobs. The lack of jobs remains a problem, but we are heading in the right direction. However, that is little comfort for many."

The unemployment remained mixed in the region, with rates higher in about half of the counties. "Interestingly, declines in unemployment were concentrated in the rural areas," Cherry said.

Seasonally adjusted employment for western North Carolina fell in December, decreasing .37 percent. Statewide adjusted employment fell .7 percent. The region lost nearly 4,700 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Mapping the growth in employment over the preceding month provides a county-level account of job creation. Seasonally adjusted employment declined in all 25 WNC counties in December. Ashe, Transylvania and Rutherford counties had the largest losses in employment (1.62, 1.03 and .97 percent). Buncombe, Henderson and Swain counties had the smallest losses (.12, .14 and .14 percent).

Seasonally adjusted WNC unemployment registered 12.2 percent in December—unchanged from the previous month. The state unemployment rate increased .5 point to 11.2 percent. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10 percent.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate within the region's rural counties registered 12.5 percent in December, down .2 point from November. In the region's metro areas, unemployment increased .3 point in Asheville to 9.5 percent and increased .3 point in Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir to 15.2 percent.

Movement in the county-level seasonally adjusted unemployment rates was mixed in December. Adjusted unemployment rates increased in 14 of the 25 WNC counties in December. Graham County experienced the largest decline in the unemployment rate (.88 point) while Caldwell County had the largest increase (1.26 points).

Graham, Caldwell and Rutherford counties had the highest unemployment rates in the region in December (17.27, 17.05 and 16.86 percent). Watauga, Buncombe and Polk counties had the lowest rates for the month (8.14, 9.16 and 9.19 percent).

Nineteen of the 25 counties had unemployment rates above 10 percent and six counties have rates more than 15 percent.

All counties have experienced higher unemployment rates during the past 12 months. Polk and Jackson counties had the smallest increases in unemployment rates (1.83 and 2.13 points) while Graham and Caldwell counties have had the largest increases in rates during the previous 12 months (6.13 and 6.11 points).

Seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance in the region, a leading indicator of unemployment, increased 14.2 percent in December. Initial claims decreased 11.4 percent in Asheville and increased 18 percent in Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir.

The WNC Index provides a monthly account of economic conditions for Western North Carolina and is typically released the fifth week following each month. For more information, visit the Web site at www.cerpa.appstate.edu/wncindex.php.

The index iss a cooperative effort by AdvantageWest-N.C. and Appalachian's Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, and the Walker College of Business.