Economic index holds ground

Western North Carolina’s economy remained unchanged in July, neither gaining nor losing ground after posting a modest 0.8 percent gain in June, according to the Western North Carolina Economic Index.

July’s numbers reflect a pause in the regional growth experienced during the past five months, says Todd L. Cherry, one of the authors of the report and an associate professor of economics in Appalachian State University’s Walker College of Business. Cherry is assisted by co-authors John Dawson of the Walker College of Business and College of Arts and Sciences professor Rich Crepeau. “The flat performance in July doesn’t necessarily indicate a change in the positive movement experienced in the previous four months. It may indicate persistent weaknesses,” Cherry said.

Seasonally adjusted employment for the region increased 0.6 percent in July. Ten WNC counties experienced job growth in July, up from four the previous month. Ashe, Avery, Mitchell and Yancey counties recorded the largest job growth numbers.

“The employment picture improved in July—jobs were created and initial claims fell—but job growth remains a difficult regional issue — the region still has 35,000 fewer jobs today compared to January 2001,” Cherry said.

Employment for the state increased 0.9 percent, while regional employment grew 0.6 percent in July. The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment for the WNC region was 6.9 percent in July, a 0.2 percent increase from June’s unemployment numbers. The state’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6 percent in July. The national unemployment rate fell 0.2 percent to 6.2 percent in July.

The region’s metropolitan areas experienced a slight increase in unemployment in July. Asheville’s unemployment rate increased 0.2 percent to 4.1 percent. The Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir area increased 0.1 percent to 9.1 percent.

Eight counties have unemployment rates below 5 percent, while five counties have rates above 9 percent.

Although Yancey and Alleghany counties had the largest decreases in unemployment rates at 2.24 percent and 2.23 percent respectively, Alleghany continues to have the highest unemployment rates in the region at 11.14 percent. Caldwell County, with 9.78 percent unemployment, and Transylvania County, with 9.53 percent unemployment, were the next highest. The lowest unemployment rates were 2.38 percent in Watauga, 3.74 in Polk, 3.89 in Madison and 3.95 in Henderson County.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance, a leading indicator of unemployment, decreased 7.7 percent in the region in July. Claims increase 7.8 percent in Asheville and decreased 18.5 percent in the Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir metropolitan service area. The WNC Economic Index and Report provides a monthly account of economic conditions for Western North Carolina.

For more information, visit the website at www.business.appstate.edu/wncindex.asp. The WNC Economic Index is a cooperative effort by AdvantageWest-North Carolina, and Appalachian State University’s Walker College of Business and Appalachian Regional Development Institute.

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